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Iran’s election to replace the late President Raisi has sparked a race among hardliners to influence the selection of the country’s next leader. With Supreme Leader Khamenei seeking a fiercely loyal president, the upcoming election on June 28 is crucial for securing stability and ensuring a smooth transition of power. Candidate registration opens this week and hopefuls will be vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicizing the reasons.
The prevailing outcome from discussions at the top level of the Iranian establishment is to secure the election of a president intensely loyal to the supreme leader. A low voter turnout is seen as crucial in ensuring the victory of a hardliner who can shape a seamless transition when Khamenei eventually passes away. However, limiting the choice on the ballot to hardliners may lead to a dampened voter interest and low turnout, potentially affecting the prestige of the 45-year-old Islamic Republic.
Amid concerns of voter apathy and discontent over economic hardship and social restrictions, some analysts suggest including low-key moderate candidates on the ballot to attract a larger turnout. Reformists, who advocate improved relations with the West and gradual moves towards more freedoms, remain sidelined from power but could play a role in increasing voter participation. However, uncertainties remain about how much political space reformists will be allowed in the election.
The upcoming election is expected to be dominated by hardliners with similar outlooks to ensure the next president is a diehard Khamenei loyalist. As the Guardian Council prepares to publish the list of qualified candidates on June 11, potential figures such as former Guards member Parviz Fattah and former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili have been mentioned in Iranian media as possible contenders. The race to influence the selection of Iran’s next leader has begun, with the stakes high for ensuring a smooth transition of power in the country.