Analyzing India’s Growing Dependency on Russian Oil Amidst Ukraine Crisis

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In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India has seen a significant increase in its imports of Russian oil, leading to a surge in bilateral trade between the two countries. The relationship between Moscow and New Delhi has deep roots dating back to the Cold War era, where the two nations forged strong ties in defense and trade. Despite accusations of funding Putin’s war machine, India has justified its increased imports by citing its traditional ties with Moscow and heavy reliance on imported oil.

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, the focus remains on boosting economic cooperation between the two nations. Russia, facing Western sanctions, has offered India attractive deals on oil, coal, and fertilizer deliveries to bolster the country’s finances for fighting the war in Ukraine. In return, India has become a major export market for Russian fossil fuels, with bilateral trade reaching record highs.

The visit by Putin to India holds strategic importance to uphold their special relationship amidst the changing geopolitical landscape. With growing India-US relations and India’s entry into the Quad, concerns in Moscow about New Delhi’s alignment have emerged. The relationship is also complicated by India-China tensions, with the recent deadly clash in Ladakh raising questions about Delhi’s stance.

Both countries have common interests, particularly in Afghanistan, where they share concerns about the Taliban and terrorism. The visit is an opportunity for the two leaders to address mutual concerns and strengthen their strategic partnership across various forums like Brics, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and RIC, where they collaborate on global issues.

The delivery of the S-400 missile defense system to India is expected to be a highlight of the visit, showcasing Moscow’s role in enhancing India’s security. Despite potential tensions with the US over the deal, India’s strategic autonomy remains a priority. Bilateral trade and defense deals between the two countries are set to increase, with a target to reach $30 billion by 2025.

India and Russia will diversify their portfolio beyond energy and minerals, focusing on sectors like education, cyber security, agriculture, railways, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy. Talks on a free trade agreement and projects like the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor are also on the agenda to further enhance bilateral trade and economic cooperation. Overall, the strong foundations of the India-Russia relationship are poised to overcome geopolitical differences and strengthen ties in various sectors.