Italy made history by being the first heavyweight nation to cast votes for the EU’s next parliament, with far-right leader Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party poised to potentially quadruple its score from 2019. The two-day ballot in Italy, as the EU’s third-largest economy, holds significant consequences with Meloni playing a crucial role in shaping the next five years of the EU. Polls suggest a potential victory for Meloni’s party, setting her up as a powerbroker to determine the fate of EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. Meloni has been courted by both the centre-right von der Leyen and French far-right leader Marine Le Pen in hopes of forming a right-wing EU supergroup. However, concerns linger about overestimating her influence in the grander scheme of EU politics. Meloni’s focus on defending Europe’s borders against illegal immigration and protecting the economy aligns with key issues that propelled her to power in 2022.
In the larger context, the immigration debate remains a driving force behind far-right support across the EU, with projections indicating a surge in far-right representation in parliament. While alliances between mainstream and far-right parties are being contemplated, the willingness of some parties to work together hinges on being pro-EU and not influenced by external factors such as Russia. EU-wide, public sentiment towards far-right groups and their stance on EU policies regarding Ukraine and Russia’s invasion mark significant distinctions.
Italy’s voting day coincided with Slovakia, a nation rocked by a recent assassination attempt on premier Robert Fico that has invigorated support for his left-wing nationalist Smer-SD party. Fico’s party opposes EU arms deliveries to Ukraine and emphasizes peace efforts over war in the region. Incidents of violence leading up to EU elections have been reported, reflecting the heightened tensions surrounding political motives in various countries participating in the elections. The unpredictability of alliances and the outcomes of these elections will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the future trajectory of the European Union.
