Monsoon Forecast: India to Witness Above-Normal Rainfall Predicted by IMD

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📷 Image Credits: The Times of India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently announced predictions for the upcoming monsoon season, forecasting above-normal rainfall in India’s core monsoon zone, covering most rain-fed agricultural areas. The IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra unveiled these projections during a virtual press conference held earlier this week.

Alongside the promising outlook for the monsoon season in the core zone, other regions of the country are expected to experience varying rainfall patterns. The northeast is anticipated to witness below-normal rainfall, while northwest regions are likely to encounter normal monsoon conditions. Conversely, central and south peninsular regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall.

The IMD reaffirmed its earlier forecast from April, anticipating cumulative rainfall to reach 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm during the four-month monsoon season from June to September. This forecast brings hope for agriculture, especially in states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh, which form the core monsoon zone of the country.

Historically, India experienced below-normal rainfall in 2023 due to drier months, particularly in June and August. The IMD also highlighted the significance of the monsoon season for the agricultural landscape, with over half of the cultivated area relying on monsoon rains for irrigation and sustenance.

Climate scientists emphasized the importance of the monsoon in replenishing reservoirs for drinking water and power generation. However, they caution that normal cumulative rainfall does not ensure uniform distribution across the country, emphasizing the impact of climate change on rain patterns.

With El Nino conditions prevailing and the potential onset of La Nina by August-September, the forecast also mentioned the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These climate phenomena could influence rainfall patterns in the southern states of India and contribute to the monsoonal season.

Moreover, below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia could further impact the monsoon dynamics. While challenges like decreasing rainy days and increasing heavy rain events persist, the hopeful prediction of above-normal monsoon rainfall brings optimism for India’s agricultural sector and water resources.

In conclusion, as the IMD prepares for the monsoon season’s onset, the forecast of above-normal rainfall in the core monsoon zone offers a positive outlook for rain-fed agriculture areas in India. The nation awaits the arrival of the monsoons, critical for sustenance, livelihoods, and the overall well-being of the country.