The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India, spanning seven phases, have captured the attention of not just the political sphere but also the stock market. As the country eagerly awaits the results on June 4, the focus now shifts to the upcoming exit polls on June 1. This pivotal moment in Indian democracy is also a critical time for investors, who are closely monitoring the market volatility surrounding the election outcome.
The Lok Sabha Exit Polls of 2024 are expected to be announced on June 1, post the conclusion of all seven phases of polling. Political experts anticipate the results to be revealed at 7 pm on that day. The stock markets are likely to see heightened activity and volatility in the lead-up to the exit polls and beyond, with sharp fluctuations expected on June 3 when the markets reopen for trading.
India VIX, a key indicator of stock market volatility, has shown fluctuations between 10 and 21 levels during the course of the Lok Sabha 2024 elections, reflecting the uncertainty and anticipation surrounding the outcome. Market analysts predict that the markets are likely to remain turbulent until there is clarity on the election results.
While opinions vary on the potential market reaction post the exit polls, there is a prevailing expectation that the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, known collectively as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will form the next government. This anticipation of stability and policy continuity under the NDA administration has influenced market sentiment and valuations.
Analysts advise investors to adopt a cautious approach in the immediate aftermath of the exit polls, as unexpected outcomes could result in short-term market fluctuations. However, they also suggest that any market underperformance due to election results tends to normalize in the medium to long term as the markets adjust to new government policies.
As stakeholders brace themselves for the final leg of the Lok Sabha elections, the stock market remains a focal point of interest and speculation. The dynamics between the election results, market movements, and investor sentiment will play a crucial role in shaping the post-election economic landscape in India.
