As India and Bangladesh gear up to renew the historic Ganga Waters Treaty, signed nearly three decades ago, the impact of climate change on water flows and the role of West Bengal government are taking center stage in the upcoming negotiations. The Ganga, one of 54 rivers shared by the two countries, saw the resolution of long-standing disputes with the signing of the treaty in 1996. The pact is set to expire in 2026, prompting both nations to kickstart technical discussions for its renewal.
Experts emphasize that the effects of the climate crisis on the Ganga’s flow must be a focal point during negotiations to ensure the treaty remains relevant and adaptable to future scenarios. Especially crucial is the role of the West Bengal government, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, as states through which cross-border rivers pass play a pivotal role in water-sharing agreements. Banerjee’s political stance on water treaties was evident in the delay of a pact concerning the Teesta river back in 2011.
Additionally, concerns loom over potential reductions in water supply to Bangladesh under the treaty provisions. Any decrease in water flow could have disastrous consequences and pose challenges in garnering public support in Bangladesh. The terms of the treaty currently dictate equal water sharing when availability is below 70,000 cusecs, with specific allocations for higher flow scenarios. These allocations were based on historical data between 1949 and 1988.
Furthermore, with looming climate change impacts predicted to alter water levels in the Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers in the coming decades, the need for recalibration and adaptive water allocation strategies becomes paramount. Experts stress the importance of robust data-sharing mechanisms, joint monitoring efforts, and science-based frameworks to ensure sustainable water management between the two nations.
The renewal of the Ganga Waters Treaty holds significant implications for India-Bangladesh relations, with political dynamics playing a critical role in shaping the future of water-sharing agreements. As both countries navigate the complexities of climate change and regional cooperation, the upcoming negotiations are poised to set the course for equitable and sustainable water management in the region.