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The world has recorded the first year of temperatures above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels, transitioning towards significantly higher temperatures. The temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, at 1.6 centigrade above pre-industrial levels. While this doesn’t imply the 1.5C threshold was crossed, it marks a concerning trend that Earth has warmed enough to start recording such temperatures. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), highlights the transition to a 2°C global warming by 2040-2060 if emissions continue at current rates.
The latest report by the IPCC predicts dire consequences of 1.5C warming, including food insecurity, loss of ecosystems, cyclones, floods, and droughts. The ongoing rise in temperatures globally is evident, with record-breaking heat across all continents. Warming temperatures pose a disproportionate effect in tropical regions like India, leading to extensive floods and heatwaves.
Additionally, over the Indian Ocean, rising sea-surface temperatures contribute to extreme weather conditions like cyclones and floods. Climate scientist Koll emphasizes the urgency of addressing these overlapping extremes and building resilience to mitigate future risks.
The significance of the 1.5C threshold stems from the industrial revolution’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The baseline period from 1850-1900 provides a reference point for comparing current warming levels. Experts stress the importance of achieving the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming below 2C, with efforts to stay within the safer 1.5C limit.
The implications of breaching the 1.5C threshold at COP28 in Dubai are central to discussions on climate action. Leaders focus on minimizing overshoot and the urgency of drastic emission reductions to avoid irreversible climate tipping points. While overshooting 1.5C is becoming inevitable, there are possibilities of returning to lower temperatures with carbon capture technologies at a massive scale.
Despite the challenges, staying within the 1.5C limit remains a critical goal. Global initiatives, technological innovations, and coordinated efforts are essential to address the climate crisis effectively and safeguard a sustainable future for all.
